Despite the decline, the trade group expects the California market will end the year with around 2 million new-vehicle registrations. That would be a slight decline from the 2.05 million registrations the market recorded in 2017, providing further proof the market has plateaued after several years of big increases.
June’s annual percentage rate of 5.82% marked a 17% increase since January 2018. Add rising rates to a virtually saturated U.S. market, record-high vehicle prices, and historically high numbers of people who owe more than their cars are worth, and the stage is set for a market contraction, the firm said.
Retail sales for the first half of 2018 are expected to be the weakest since 2014, but record transaction prices have consumers on pace to spend nearly $5 billion more on new-vehicle purchases during the period compared to a year ago.
May new-vehicle sales grew by 4.8% from the year-ago period, while average incentive spending per unit grew 6.6% from a year ago to $3,740.
With the car market having plateaued after several years of increases, the California New Car Dealers Association said it continues to see increasing demand for larger, more family-friendly vehicles. But with gas prices continuing to increase, that trend could shift in the quarters ahead.
Less price-sensitive buyers splurged for the latest models in April, with the industry’s average transaction price rising 2% from a year ago despite rising fuel prices.
It’s not just the wave of off-lease vehicles expected to return to the market this year and next, it’s the type of vehicles returning that could stunt new sales. Rising interest rates, however, could turn the tide for the new-vehicle market.
Average incentive spending in February is poised to fall for the first time since 2013 due to lower spending by Domestic manufacturers on trucks and SUVs. The two firms also project a 400,000-unit decrease in the SAAR and a 3% decline in retail sales.
Used-vehicle value pricing continues to return to pre-hurricane levels but overall remains high, the firm reported this week.
December’s average transaction price for a new vehicle rose nearly 2% from a year ago to a record high of $36,113, the firm reported last week.
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